Thursday, November 13, 2008

NFL Week 11 Predictions

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UCF vs. Southern Miss Football

The University of Central Florida Knights scored first on Saturday, but after a first quarter touchdown pass from freshman quarterback Rob Calabrese they would not score again in a Homecoming Day 17-6 loss to the University of Southern Miss.
That the Knights (2-7, 1-4 C-USA) struggle on offense is nothing new, but what is emerging is a troubling lack of defense, as the offense cannot keep them off the field.
"We have a bunch of kids on defense that are making some things happen, and way too many players on offense that aren't making things happen," Head Coach George O'Leary said. "We sure had our opportunities today in the passing game to move the ball down the field, and we just didn't get it done. I feel bad for the senior class who have given everything for four years here and lose their bowl opportunity."
Another problem facing the Knights is senior punt returner Joe Burnett being taken out of the game. Opposing teams realize his ability to make plays and now kick away from him.
"Everyone is doing it, and there is not much you can do to help him out," O'Leary said. "They are basically squibbing it, or kicking it away from him every time. We continue working on stacking the returners and try to switch it up. That is a credit to him that they have that much respect for him and what he has done."
Southern Miss (4-6, 2-4 C-USA) was able to score in each quarter after the first. The Golden Eagles racked up a total of 338 yards on offense, including 188 yards through the air on 21 completions in 34 attempts with no interceptions against an unusually subdued UCF secondary.
One possible silver lining for the Knights is that the score was not 23-6 at the whistle. UCF junior linebacker Chance Henderson blocked a second quarter Britt Barefoot field goal attempt, and Barefoot missed another one from 42 yards out in the third.
The Knights started the game much as they did last Sunday's flop against East Carolina. The defense forced Southern Miss to punt on their first possession, the eighth time in nine games this season an opponent has failed to score on their opening drive.
The offense took over backed up to their own 9-yard-line. Freshman runningback Brynn Harvey ripped off a 28-yard run on UCF's first offensive play. Moving quickly down the field with Calabrese passes to redshirt sophomore receiver Brian Watters and sophomore receiver Kamar Aiken for 15 and 19 yards respectively, and allowing Harvey to grind it out on the ground, the Knights were at the Southern Miss 3-yard-line in eight plays. On third down, sophomore receiver Khymest Williams caught a 3-yard Calabrese fade in the corner of the end zone.
"You've got to have something go wrong," one fan noted after kicker Daren Daly banged the extra point off the upright, leaving the score 6-0.
And that was it for the Knights' offense.
Henderson's field goal block in the second quarter kept the score 6-0 and gave the Knights a chance to widen the gap before the half. Instead, on 2nd-and-7, Calabrese threw an interception to Southern Miss' Eddie Hicks who was the only player near the ball.
The Golden Eagles worked their way down to the UCF 5-yard-line and quarterback Austin Davis lofted a fade to receiver DeAndre Brown for six.
Barefoot made good on the point-after attempt and the score was 7-6.
The third quarter was the nail in the coffin for UCF.
The Knights started the second half with possession and, following a false start penalty on redshirt freshman Adam Nissley, went three-and-out.
Southern Miss managed to get to the UCF 25 on their next possession, leading to Barefoot's second missed field goal of the game.
UCF took over on downs, and after a 12-yard pass to Watters, again went three-and-out.
It was all Southern Miss for the rest of the third quarter.
Taking over on their own 15 with 9:02 left in the third, the Golden Eagles marched down the field on a 17-play, 85-yard scoring drive that ate 8:57 off the clock. The scoring play was an 8-yard run by quarterback Austin Davis, who stretched the ball into the endzone before being wrapped up, making it 14-6.
"I think we had third down opportunities that you have to make plays on," O'Leary said about the drive. "We had to put a freshman in for Chance Henderson, and that is where they completed the [16-yard] pass. Again, it was a tough game and defense was on the field a lot, but that is why they are on scholarship."
The Knights started the fourth quarter with a 27-yard Calabrese pass to Aiken. Calabrese took a hard shot to the back on the play, and redshirt freshman Michael Greco came in. He threw three incomplete passes and sophomore punter Blake Clingan again came on the field, followed again by the Knights' defense.
The defense held Southern Miss, and the Barefoot punt was downed at the UCF 45.
Calabrese was healthy again and it showed as he too threw three incomplete passes. The defense came back on after 24 seconds of rest on the sideline.
Southern Miss again showed their ability to manage a game as they went 71 yards in 11 plays, setting up a 29-yard Barefoot field goal to make it a two-possession game at 17-6.
Showing a drive and willingness to win on the next possession, Calabrese was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 quarterback keeper.
Calabrese threw his second and final interception of the game with 1:56 left in the game and Southern Miss kneeled to run out the clock.
O'Leary was asked about the possibility of starting third-string freshman quarterback Joe Weatherford.
"He is number three right now in the program," he said. "I know [quarterbacks coach] George Godsey is getting him some reps in practice and trying to see where he is going. I think based on what happens in the next part of the season, then you will see his name pop up on the field. Again, as I have told the team, we are out to win football games. I think the guys who are playing, are the ones who are supposed to be on the field. We haven't missed anyone."
With this, the seventh loss of the season, the Knights are eliminated from bowl contention. Senior safety Jason Venson offered his thoughts on how UCF will stay motivated through the final three games.
"Pride, the game of football is a prideful game," Venson said. "We are going to go out there and play each other, especially for the seniors and go out there and win our last three games in college football. We can't get a winning season so all we can do is go out there and play for pride."
UCF has a two-game away stretch at Marshall (Nov. 15) and Memphis (Nov. 22) before closing out the season against UAB at home.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Ugh. Now we begin the part of the season with football on Thursdays. And not the good kind of Thursday football, where it's Thanksgiving and the Lions play early and the Cowboys play in the afternoon; the kind of Thursday football that was revealed to Tom Landry and Curly Lambeau by Football Allah (who looks an awful lot like John Madden). No, this is the NFL at its worst, showcasing games on their own network which isn't carried by five of the top seven cable providers and Football Allah's mercy on anybody who tries to post highlights anywhere that isn't NFL.com. Plus it once involved something called "Bryant Gumble." Whatever that is.
Anyway, picks. Let's have 'em.


Denver at Cleveland - The Browns. They are terrible.

True Americans know that the best football is played on Sundays. They also know the best sex is with a bald eagle in the missionary position.
New Orleans at Atlanta - As a Bucs fan, it'll be nice to not have to worry about another 6-3 team in the conference.
Tennessee at Chicago - Sorry, Sexy Rexy. The Houston Oilers are going 16-0 this year.
Jacksonville at Detroit - Two weeks ago I predicted the Jags would be 6-3. I'll excuse that error by claiming dyslexia after they fall to 3-6.
Baltimore at Houston - The Ravens are on a hot streak. Also, doesn't Flacco sound like something being pimped by Billy Mays on daytime television? "Buy now and we'll send you a second Flacc-O FREE!"
Seattle at Miami - The Dolphins are light-years ahead of where they were last season, but I think the 2007 'Fins could beat the 2008 'Hawks.
Green Bay at Minnesota - After this win, it's gonna be awesome hearing all the bloated cheeseheads complaining about Brett Favre selling the Packers' secrets to the Vikings. What secret? For the past 15 seasons in Green Bay the secret was "Brett Favre throws an INT each quarter at a crucial point, then unloads like five 79-yard TD passes in the final four minutes." Boom. I just won Coach of the Year.
Buffalo at New England - I can't possibly hate on the Pats enough.
St. Louis at New York Jets - Oops. I just gave away the Jets' game plan. I hope Jim Haslett never reads this or else the Jets are in troub- wait, no, they're playing the Rams. The Jets will still win.
Carolina at Oakland - Why not?
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh - Indy gets Bob Sanders back and the Colts are far and away a better team with him on D.
Kansas City at San Diego - After this season, the NFL should disband the AFC and NFC West.
New York Giants at Philadelphia - The Giants are certainly playing like they want to repeat as champions. I wish them many years of success. Specifically, many more than the Patriots had.

And as for Monday:
San Francisco at Arizona - Remember how last season Joe Theisman and Tony Kornheiser always seemed one smart-allecky comment away from laying into each other on "Monday Night Football"? I bet a really good way for Kornheiser to get Theisman to swing first would've been to say "Hey, Joe, break a leg," right as they went on the air.

UCF vs. ECU Football

The University of Central Florida Knights lost in overtime for the second time at home this season Sunday night at Bright House Networks Stadium. Unlike the earlier loss to South Florida, an almost-heroic comeback story that wasn't, the loss to the East Carolina University Pirates was a story of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Or rather, giving away victory with an interception.
ECU kicker Ben Hartman kicked a 39-yard field goal in overtime to hand the UCF Knights their sixth loss of the season following an interception of a Michael Greco pass.
ECU (5-3, 3-1 C-USA) was a team that opened the season looking dangerous. They unseated two top-25 teams in Virginia Tech (No. 17 at the time) and West Virginia (No. 8 at the time) in consecutive weeks, earning them a ranking as high as No. 15 nationally. A three-week losing skid brought the Pirates back to reality and out of the national rankings.
UCF (2-6, 1-3 C-USA) was a team that opened the season looking unorganized. They struggled offensively in a 17-0 season-opener win against South Carolina State and, following an emotional overtime loss to South Florida the next week, were outscored 92-20 in their next two games.
Head Coach George O'Leary knew his team has struggled. "Offense has to get something done to help [the defense] out and we didn't get that accomplished," he said after the game.
The offensive malaise that plagued the Knights throughout the season carried over to the rest of the team Sunday night, starting with the special teams.
The opening kick went out of bonds on the near sideline setting ECU up at their 40-yard line.
ECU quarterback Pat Pinkney handed the ball to running back Norman Whitley three times on their first possession but UCF’s defense swarmed to the ball each time and forced the three-and-out.
UCF seemed to be off to a better start offensively on their first possession as freshman running back Brynn Harvey ripped off an 11-yard run on the first play for UCF. Then, fourth-yearh junior quarterback Greco took off for 12 yards on the next, a broken pass play.
Two plays, two first downs.
The unusually efficient offense then stalled as Greco, scrambling backwards, was sacked for a 17-yard loss. Greco rushed on the next play and got back some of the yards lost, but the Knights still had to settle for a 49-yard field goal off the foot of fifth-year senior kicker Daren Daly.
The Pirates brought the kick-off down to the UCF 10-yard-line but the run was called back due to an illegal block penalty and they had to start from their own 17. On third and three, junior linebacker Chance Henderson came crashing through the line and sacked Pinkney for another ECU three-and-out.
For the rest of the first quarter, punting was in fasion. Both teams' offenses kept coming up short. It wasn’t until the literal last minute of the first quarter that ECU managed a first down from a 19-yard Whitley run.
After converting a 2nd-and-1 at the UCF 31, ECU at least managed to call in their placekicker. Hartman's 48-yard attempt went wide left and UCF took possession.
Seven plays later, the Knights again stalled, this time at ECU's 34. Daly came on to attempt a 52-yard field goal but he too missed wide left.
A UCF 54-yard field goal attempt fell about 10 yards short and 5 yards wide.
The game’s first touchdown came with just 1:45 left in the first half. After pointing out ECU corner Emanuel Davis creeping up for a blitz, third-year sophomore wide receiver Jamar Newsome caught a Greco ball thrown quickly over Davis' head and scampered 54 yards for six points. Daly's kick after the touchdown made it 10-0 in UCF's favor.
ECU attempted a 46-yard field goal with 26 seconds left on the clock but missed wide left again. UCF took over at the 29 and Greco took a knee to end the second half.
ECU’s Whitley had little trouble running through a suddenly-porous Knights defense on the Pirates' first second-half possession. Whitley had runs for 11, 16, and 17 yards. ECU quickly zipped downfield to UCF’s 10-yard-line. The Knights' defense stiffened with the goal line at their backs and forced ECU to kick again. Hartman got his team three points from 27 yards out and cut the Knights' lead to 7.
The Pirates caught a lucky break on the ensuing kickoff. Hartman rifled a kick low and hard at fourth-year junior linebacker Alex Thompson. The ball bounced off Thompson's body back towards ECU and linebacker Dustin Lineback recovered the ball on the ECU 42. No penalty flags were thrown because the ball had travelled 10 yards and then touched a receiving team player before being recovered.
UCF caught a lucky break of their own six plays later. ECU running back Brandon Simmons bobbled the handoff on a run play and UCF's fifth-year senior free safety Jason Venson recovered the ball, his second fumble recovery on the season.
For the rest of the quarter the teams traded punts with neither side showing much offensive threat.
It all started to go wrong for UCF in the fourth quarter with 6:49 left in the game, as O'Leary himself noted.
"The execution in the fourth quarter hurt us, and the ball security. That was the difference in the game," he said.
Taking over on their own 44-yardline, the Knights were in control. At least, in theory. In reality, Harvey rushed for a total of -1 yard on two attempts. Rather than run again on 3rd-and-11 to milk more clock, O'Leary called for a pass. The pass was incomplete and the clock was stopped. After a botched punt attempt, sophomore punter Blake Clingan was forced to scramble. He only got three yards before being tackled.
ECU took over on the UCF 46. After quickly snapping up 10 yards and a new set of downs, ECU struggled. UCF's defense forced three straight incomplete Pinkney passes but on 4th-and-10 the usually vaunted secondary gave up a 13-yard pass to Davon Drew.
The collapse continued as, facing a 3rd-and-9 on UCF's 22, the Knights allowed another Drew reception, this one for 18 yards. On the next play, junior defensive tackle Torrell Troup was flagged as offsides.
With first-and-goal at the 2-yardline, ECU's Whitley had no trouble moving through the running lanes for two yards and six points. Hartman's extra point tied the game at 10-10 with 1:46 left in the game.
Following a failed offensive drive from each team, UCF received another punt. Greco, after rushing 13 yards, fumbled the ball on a hit by Davis, who also recovered.
ECU's Shaun Shaffner started the next drive, and his first pass was deflected. It was then scooped up by fifth-year-senior cornerback Johnell Neal. UCF took a knee to force overtime.
ECU won the cointoss to start overtime and elected to defend first.
Michael Greco, the experienced veteran, the man who led UCF's last-quarter come-from-behind surge against South Florida, the man who now had 40,202 pairs of eyes on him and the outcome of the game in his hands settled in under center.
He took the snap, dropped back, made a bad read, and promptly threw an interception, effectively killing his team's chances at a win.
"It was a go route," O'Leary said of the pass. "The guy sat there and Kamar [Aiken] was right, and Mike [Greco] was wrong. Kamar just ran by the guy and it would have been a touchdown. A hitch was called and a conversion off of that based on the coverage."
ECU's field goal team came on following three short-yardage run plays and Hartman kicked the final field goal of the evening, giving his team a 13-10 victory.
O'Leary summed up his team's effort and spoke of the upcoming schedule.
"Right now we just didn't execute as well as you would like to see them execute. You just have to continue on. We have four games left and each one is important because they are [Conference USA] Eastern Division foes," he said.
UCF next plays Saturday, Nov. 8 at 3:30 p.m. at Bright House Networks Stadium. They host the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-6, 1-4 C-USA).

NFL Week 9 Predictions

Green Bay at Tennessee - The Packers' defense is listed towards the bottom of the league against the run. The Titans' rushing offense is third-best in the league.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City - Tampa Bay's offense struggled in Dallas' red zone last week, but the Chiefs' overall D is 31st in the NFL. Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn especially should have a good day running all over the Chiefs' last-place rushing defense.
Baltimore at Cleveland - The Browns have managed wins against the defending Super Bowl champions and the Jaguars in their last three games, but they just don't have the offensive juice to top one of the best defenses in the league.
Detroit at Chicago - After Bill Parcells rebuilds the Dolphins he can move to Detroit to help the terrible Lions.
New York Jets at Buffalo - It's Brett Favre, man.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati - The Jaguars have struggled this year so far, but playing the Bungles should give them a shot at recovering.
Houston at Minnesota - Who cares?
Arizona at St. Louis - The Cards haven't played well on the road this season, but they should be able to score a 'W' against the Rams.
Miami at Denver - The Dolphins might go 8-8 this year, but they're not getting a win here.
Atlanta at Oakland - Atlanta threw Matt Flynn into the fray too soon in his career, and that will be evident again this week.
Dallas at New York Giants - It looks like Brad Johnson is starting again. The Giants love defensive wizardry when it comes to blitz packages which should allow another close victory for them.
Philadelphia at Seattle - Donovan McNabb looked like vintage No. 5 last week and the Seahawks are collapsing like a poorly-made flan.
New England at Indianapolis - No pick. I hate the Patriots and cannot bring myself to predict them winning. At the same time, I don't think Indy can win this one. Call it a 17-17 tie.

Monday
Pittsburgh at Washington - Did you know that the Redskins predict presidential elections? It's true. If the 'Skins win their last home game before an election, the incumbent party stays in power. If they lose, the challenger takes office. That's been the case 94.4% of the time, going back to 1936 (the year John McCain was born). Of course, in 2004 the 'Skins lost at home to the Packers and George W. Bush stayed in the White House, so who knows?

NFL Week 8 Picks

Oakland at Baltimore - The Raiders stink.
Arizona at Carolina - The Panthers have been playing well at home this season.
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Brad Johnson will get a chance to say 'hi' to old friends and meet some new ones on the Bucs.
Washington at Detroit - The Lions are terrible.
Buffalo at Miami - The Bills lead the AFC East. The Miami Dolphins looked inept again last week, and all is right with the world except for the part where the freakin' Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East.
St. Louis at New England - Hilarious upset of the week alert.
San Diego "at" New Orleans - This game is actually being played in Wembley Stadium in London. I'd say the team that only has to deal with a 4-hour time change will win over a team that has to deal with a 7-hour shift.
Kansas City at New York Jets - Brett Favre just wins games, except for that one he just lost to the Left Coast Lions.
Atlanta at Philadelphia - The faithful Philly fans should fluster Flynn. That's some pretty sweet alliteration if I do say so myself.
Cleveland at Jacksonville - The Jaguars got off to a rough start and are now 3-3. Get ready for 6-3, because they face the two terrible teams from Ohio followed by the Lions. The next test for the Jaguars won't be until week 11 when the Titans come to town.
Cincinnati at Houston - May the least worst team win.
New York Giants at Pittsburgh - The Giants are a legitimate threat to return to the Super Bowl this year.
Seattle at San Francisco - You've got to kind of feel bad for Mike Holmgren. Yes, his last season with the Seahawks is a disaster, but while that shame will fade, he'll always look like a walrus.
And as for Monday...
Indianapolis at Tennessee - Thanks, zany NFL parity!

The J-Spot

He's been called an "agent of the devil" whose speeches leave audiences in the throes of "an erotic frenzy," and last Tuesday he came to Valencia's West Campus to yet again incite lustful orgies in the name of Satan.
Except all that really happened was sex educator Jay Friedman gave a 90-minute talk that covered sex and sexuality in a frank, engaging, and funny manner.
Friedman opened his speech, "The J-Spot: A Sex Educator Tells All," with a steamy story involving "erect nipples," instantly engaging the audience. As it turns out, Friedman was just talking about breast-feeding.
"All of us are sexual beings, from the womb to the tomb. We have a natural desire to learn about sex. Sex is good. It's what we learn about sex that's bad," he said, setting the tone for the rest of the lecture.
Friedman illustrated this to the audience by describing the common early sex education American males have: Dad's box of Playboys in the garage or National Geographics in the library. Friedman then set to work disproving many sexual myths Americans may have, such as whether or not men will explode if they do not have sexual release. (No.)
"Dull lovers, not condoms, make for dull sex," Friedman said, disproving another myth.
The speech's climax, so to speak, was a clip from an animated Swedish sex education video describing orgasms and masturbation with Pink-Floyd-esque visuals. After Friedman revealed that this video is commonly shown to middle school students in Europe, the audience gasped.
Yasen Angelov, however, did not. "I'm from Europe, actually, and we are pretty open minded over there so for me it was strange that here there is a more conservative view of sex. I'm now seeing it from the other side," he said.
Friedman's call-to-action speech struck a chord with others in the audience as well.
"He wasn't afraid to talk about the real topics that are being discussed now but aren't being discussed as much. It was provocative and stimulating at the same time," said Teree Douglas.
"People need to speak up on what they like," Friedman said. "Part of what I like to do is make people more active. There's not the activism [on college campuses] that there was in the 60s and 70s. The opponents to sex education are very vocal about that and then their voices seem very strong to skittish school administrators."
Friedman's ideal sex education curriculum may not sit well with those skittish administrators, however.
"The ideal sex ed curriculum is comprehensive: kindergarten through 12th grade. People hear that and get scared like you're gonna teach sexual positions to kids, but it's age-appropriate. How about this? Teach about puberty before kids go through puberty," Friedman said. He wasn't afraid to tackle birth-control controversy either, saying "All too often there's no message about birth control or an anti-message. I always say 'Vows of abstinence break more than condoms do.'"
Friedman talks in other countries as well.
"This is a high school lecture in other countries. In Japan it's interesting because there's a similar mentality as there is in the United States, where you don't talk about sex so openly and yet they have this wacky culture where there's vending machines with used women's underwear. There's a weird split there. [America] tends to export [policy]. We're very missionary with our abstinence-only programs," he said.
For someone so unassuming, Friedman does cause controversy.
"I've had schools hire security for me out of their concern for me," he said, adding, "Southern audiences seem to be full of that stereotypical Southern hospitality. People clap even though they're like 'You suck.'"
Friedman braves name-calling and threats because, as he puts it, "the places that are the most conservative are perhaps in most need of my message."

UCF vs Rice Women's Soccer

The University of Central Florida women's soccer team fell to the visiting Rice Owls 2-1 in the second overtime period of Friday night's game at the UCF Soccer Complex.
The game was the fourth consecutive one the Knights played in overtime, and the fifth out of the last six.
UCF's record now stands at 8-4-3 overall and 3-2-2 in Conference USA play.
8 minutes into the second half, Rice's Erin Scott broke through the Knights' defense. UCF's redshirt freshman keeper Aline Reis came out of the box to defend, but tripped and Scott easily flipped the ball over her for the score. The goal was the first Rice has scored against UCF.
"After being down a goal, we played a lot better," said Knights Head Coach Amanda Cromwell, and the statistics support that statement. "We outshot 'em 16-2," she said.
It was indeed all UCF for the second half, with those 16 shots seemingly non-stop against Rice. The Owls, however, managed to get a defender between the ball and the net on each shot.
The Knights finally capitalized on the several opportunities Rice handed them when, in the 89th minute, junior Brianna Schooley, playing at midfield as part of several changes and substitutions UCF made, passed to senior Danielle Dos Santos. Dos Santos' shot was blocked by Rice keeper Meghan Erkel, but it rebounded right back to Dos Santos who fired it into the net to tie the game at 1-1.
The first of the "golden goal" overtime periods was again dominated by UCF, but the Knights were unable to finish.
"We've been working on shooting and finishing. It's just a little lack of composure," said Cromwell.
Rice only got one shot in overtime, but it was enough. In the 106th minute, Scott sent a shot spinning towards Reis from about 20 yards out. After a wild bounce, it bypassed Reis and crossed the goal line to end the game, stunning UCF players, coaches, and fans. The Rice players themselves were a little late to celebrate as well.
"I'm kinda shocked," said Cromwell soon after the final whistle, "because that goal was kind of like 'What happened? Did we actually just lose that game?'"
Cromwell and the Knights had hoped to run the Conference-USA table before the C-USA championship in Houston in November. "It's gonna be tough [to win C-USA]. We're not in control of our destiny."
UCF's last home game of the season is Oct. 24 vs. SMU at 7 p.m. at the UCF Soccer Complex.