NFL Predictions Week 13

Another rough week last week. The Thanksgiving games being fairly obvious picks saved my bacon. Of course, I thought a lot of those Sunday picks were obvious (Pittsburgh, Tennessee) and look how that shook out.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 112-63

Thursday
New Orleans (5-6) at Atlanta (10-1) - Drew Brees as a Saint is 11-2 against the Falcons, including Week 10's 31-27 win against these same Falcons. The Saints are a different team this year, though. They're not as cohesive. They'll still put up a ton of points but they'll also allow a ton and I think the Falcons edge it out here.

Sunday Jacksonville (2-9) at Buffalo (4-7) - Of course this is my CBS early game. Barf. If Chad Henne wants what's best for his team, he will stab Blaine Gabbert in his throwing arm. Henne has combined for 615 yards and six TDs in the two games he's seen action in. The Jaguars beat the Titans last week, buuuut the Titans are pretty bad. The Bills are at least a little less bad and should edge the Jaguars here.

Seattle (6-5) at Chicago (8-3) - I kinda dropped the ball on the Bears pick last week, but I figured Cutler would be out and I was too lazy to change my pick after I heard he was good to go. Meh. The Seahawks are just 1-5 on the road; the Bears are 5-1. The Seahawks allow 16.8 points/game; the Bears allow 15.9. A 14-7 final score.

Indianapolis (7-4) at Detroit (4-7) - The Colts are 5-1 in their last six games (CHUCKSTRONG); the Lions have lost three straight. Look for... Jim Schwartz will have the challenge flag literally stapled to his ass.

Minnesota (6-5) at Green Bay (7-4) - The Vikings are 1-3 in their last four games. The Packers got roughed up by the Giants last week, but were 5-0 going into that game. Greg Jennings could make a return in this one, but it's not like he's the one piece the Packers need to win (the Packers are 5-2 without him). Kyle Rudolph might be out with a concussion; that's a bigger deal for the Vikings' offense, but it won't be a game-changer if he's on the field.

Houston (10-1) at Tennessee (4-7) - The Texans stomped the Titans mightily in Week 4 (38-14). Jake Locker got knocked out of that game; he's back now, and completing a whopping 51.6% of his passes. The Texans don't have any linebackers left, but even with their defense depleted they'll be able to handle the Titans in 60 minutes- no overtime needed.

Carolina (3-8) at Kansas Shitty (1-10) -

Huuaaagh.

As gut-wrenchingly awful as these two teams are, I'm still making this my Stone Cold Tighten Up Lock it Down Lock it Up Can't Miss You Better Believe It LOCK OF THE WEEK. The Chiefs aren't turning the ball over as willy-nilly as they were (three in their last three games as opposed to 3.6 per game in the first eight games), but they're still not scoring for shit (four straight with less than 14 points; 14.6 points/game average for the year). Even the Panthers can top that. Oh and congratulations to the Chiefs for being the first team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Have a party.

San Francisco (8-2-1) at St. Louis (4-6-1) - These teams will meet again and try to play to a win. Three weeks ago, Alex Smith was the QB for the Niners. This time, Colin Kaepernick will probably be under center. I'd rather have a quarterback with a huge snoot than one with baby hands, and it seems like Jim Harbaugh's teeth agree.

New England (8-3) at Miami (5-6) - What do you need to know? Tawm is 14-6 against Miami in his career.

Arizona (4-7) at NY Jets (4-7) -

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Cardinals are garbage; the only reason there's not a similar video for them is because they have no fans. "Oh well," say Arizonans, "our team is losing at halftime. Let's leave now and go back to smoking meth in our trailers and having our skin turned into beef jerky by the desert sun."

Tampa Bay (6-5) at Denver (8-3) - The Broncos are getting exactly what they wanted and expected when they signed Peyton Manning. They lead the AFC West, and have won six straight. Peyton has thrown 2+ TDs nine times in 11 games, and has at least 270 passing yards for nine straight. The Bucs, on the other hand, were on a four-game streak before losing by one friggin' point to the Falcons last week. This will be another close game, but in the end I see it coming down to whichever QB can lead a 4th-quarter comeback last.

Cincinnati (6-5) at San Diego (4-7) - The Chargers are 1-6 in their last seven, with their lone win coming against awful Kansas City. The Bengals are on a three-game win streak in which they've scored 93 points. Cincy QB Andy Dalton has 9 TDs and 0 INTs during those three games. If I was in the Chargers' front office, I'd have gone Lovecraft insane thinking about Eli Manning and Drew Brees compared to our QB.

Pittsburgh (6-5) at Baltimore (9-2) - The Stillers better g-d hope Ben Roethlisberger is back this week. EIGHT turnovers to the Browns last week. Not all of them were Charlie Batch's fault, but still. Gaddamn. Anyway, it won't really matter in the end. The Ravens are the better team.

Cleveland (3-8) at Oakland (3-8) - Holy God. Two awful teams go ass to ass to see who can poop and fart all over themselves more. Brandon Weeden might be out with a concussion but it's not like Colt McCoy is gonna be a miracle-worker or anything.

(SNF) Philadelphia (3-8) at Dallas (5-6) - The Eagles are a big shitty mess basically running out the clock on the rest of their season. The Cowboys still think they have a shot at the playoffs, which is cute, but as long as they're matched up against hapless 3-8 teams, they'll prevail.

Monday
NY Giants (7-4) at Washington (5-6) - NFC East matchups in primetime, eh? Okay, NFL schedulers. Anyway, for mouthbreathers who like watching home run derbies, this game will be entertaining as hell. Eli Manning threw three TDs against the Packers last week, and RGTheThird threw four TDs (for the second straight game) on Thanksgiving. With the Giants' secondary struggling as it is, and RG3's strategy of "Fuck it, goin' deep" coming together, this one will be full of scoring.

NFL Predictions Week 12

Happy Turkey Day!

I'm updating this on Saturday. I'd just like to point out I was 3/3 on Thanksgiving picks. Heh. The one thing I didn't predict was how high-scoring all three games would be. In another pick 'em, I said the combined score of all three games would be 150 points, and that was way high compared to everyone else's prediction. The total was like 202 or something equally insane-balls. And how about Fireman Ed on Thanksgiving? Just sitting there with a thousand-yard stare like somebody shot his dog. Gobble gobble!

Last week: 12-2
Season: 103-56

Thursday
Houston (9-1) at Detroit (4-6) - The Texans are allowing less than two TDs a game on the road this year (13.7 points/game) and are rolling. The Lions committed four turnovers last week against the Packers.

Washington (4-6) at Dallas (5-5) - This one could be a shootout. Robert Griffin The Third threw for 200 yards even and FOUR TDs on just 14 completions (out of 15 attempts). Yowza. All the highlights I saw of the 'Skins last week were RG3 heaving the ball deep to either triple-covered or blown-coverage-wide-open Santana Moss. Exciting stuff. Anywho, obviously neither of these teams are spectacular so it'll probably come down to who has the ball last in a 63-56 shootout.

New England (7-3) at NY Jets (4-6) - The Jets cost me a chance to win some free cigars and BBQ tools last week with their win over the Rams last week, ruining a 100% accuracy rate on Sunday's games. So you may have heard Rob "The Big" Gronkowski broke his arm blocking on a garbage-time PAT (and there's a whole blog post in the discussion about why or why not your star TE should be blocking on a PAT when you're up by 28) but it won't matter. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman and Brandon Lloyd and Tawm and Stevan Ridley will be just fine.

Sunday
Minnesota (6-4) at Chicago (7-2) - This pick hinges on Jay Cutler's concussed brain. Jason Campbell's non-concussed but still-awful brain might be getting murdered by the Vikings' defense.

Oakland (3-7) at Cincinnati (5-5) - Cincy stomped the Chiefs by 22 points (yeah, the Chiefs, but still) last week and the Giants by 18 the game before that. Oakland have lost by 10, 35, and 21. Take the over. The Raiders are allowing points like it's their job (it's not) and the Bengals are scoring points like it's theirs (it is).

Pittsburgh (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8) - Barf. The Steelers are 16-1 in the past 17 games between these two, and even with Charles K. Batch under center, the Steelers won't have much trouble making it 17-1 in 18.

Buffalo (4-6) at Indianapolis (6-4) - Indy lost to the Pats last week, in large part thanks to four Andrew "Irish" Luck INTs, including two picks-six. Luck is a good QB and will make adjustments, though. The Bills' passing defense is mediocre and won't force the same mistakes the Pats did.

Denver (7-3) at Kansas City (1-9) - Fun fact: as nightmarishly shitty as the Chiefs have been this year (seven-game losing streak in which they've never scored more than 20 points; averaging 12 points/game) they are still not eliminated from the playoffs. As a contrast sure to upset sweet old ladies not afraid to tell Chiefs players they need to start winning some games, Peyton "Rub Some Dirt on It" Manning is racking up 295 yards/game with 13 total TDs in the Broncos' five-game winning streak. Willis McGahee is out and Ronnie Hillman is expected to start. Hillman had ~3,000 yards rushing in two seasons for San Diego State. I'm making this my Stone Cold Tighten Up Lock it Down Lock it Up Can't Miss You Better Believe It LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Seattle (6-4) at Miami (4-6) - Speaking of losing streaks and 12[.3] points a game, the Dolphins. The Seahawks are 6-4 only because they've played five games at home. They're 1-4 on the road this year but ought to make it 2-4 against a Dolphins defense that has been unable to force any turnovers in their losing skid.

Atlanta (9-1) at Tampa Bay (6-4) - "The Bucs are on a four-game losing streak and look like poo as usual and oh God fire everyone." That's a macro I have ready to go whenever the Bucs play. They're actually on a four-game winning streak despite getting jobbed on a Doug Martin "fumble" towards the end of last week's OT win against the Panthers. They're putting up 34.8 points and 403 total yards per game in their last four. Having said that, the Falcons are playing really well. So well, in fact, that last week they won despite SIX turnovers including 5 Matty Ice INTs. If he does that again this week, though, the Dirty Birds will be 9-2.

Tennessee (4-6) at Jacksonville (1-9) - Another fun fact: the Jags are also not eliminated from playoff contention this year. Nobody is, actually. Anywho, the Jags almost beat the Texans last week, which is weird. But the Titans have this Chris Johnson back and the Jaguars have the 29th-ranked run D to go with a 28th-ranked pass D. They're really, really bad on both sides of the ball. Hopefully last week's 354-yard performance by Chad "Not Blaine Gabbert" Henne will prove to whatever decision-making-chicken that sets Jacksonville's depth chart that Blaine Gabbert is not the future of the franchise.

Baltimore (8-2) at San Diego (4-6) - The Chargers only have two wins in their past eight games, both against the Chiefs. The Ravens are 3-0 this month, putting up 93 points to opponents' 45. San Diego is kind of a mess right now, but watch this Danario Alexander kid. He's had three TDs in the last two games after riding pine for the first six games of the season.

St. Louis (3-6-1) at Arizona (4-6) - Ewwwww. The Rams are winless in their last five. The Cards are winless in their last six. Home team (and team which forced six turnovers last week) gets the nod.

San Francisco (6-2-1) at New Orleans (5-5) - Drew Brees has been on fire lately, with 18 TDs in the Saints' past six games. These teams last met in last year's playoffs and it was a ridiculous high-scoring affair. Don't expect anything different this time around.

(SNF) Green Bay (7-3) at NY Giants (6-4) - The Packers are hot now with a five-game win streak and the Giants are 0-2 in November. This is another 2011 playoff rematch (the Giants won that one) and ought to be damn good. If the NFC East keeps losing, the Giants could make the playoffs as a 6-10 team and I can't even begin to tell you how badly I want that to happen.

Monday
Carolina (2-8) at Philadelphia (3-7) - Who even cares? This is a terrible matchup between two terrible teams. LeSean McCoy is concussed and Michael Vick can't read a Dr. Seuss book- and that was before his concussion (HI-YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!). Seriously, though, Vick is severely concussed and will probably never function at the level he did before this- which is good for dogs and women without herpes (HI-YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!). I kid, I kid. Wishing you a full and speedy recovery, Ron.

NFL Week 12

Not that anyone actually cares but here are my Thanksgiving picks just in case I can't get an article out before kickoff.And here is the rest of it.

NFL Predictions Week 11

What the hell happened last week, man? Upsets all over the damn place. I think this was my worst week since the scab refs were sent back to the ACC where they belong.

Last week: 7-6
Season: 91-54

Thursday
Miami (4-5) at Buffalo (3-6)- Miami got smoked by the Titans last week (!?!?!) so they'll be looking to tighten up against a team they've beaten six out of the last eight times they played. The defense I've talked up in the past was on the field last week a lot due to three INTs, so let's hope the Dolphins have that sorted out.

Sunday
Arizona (4-5) at Atlanta (8-1) - BIIIIIRD FIIIIGHT! The Falcons got their first loss out of the way last week as they played like garbage against the Saints (18 team rushes for 46 yards against the worst rush defense in the league [177 yards per game]). The Cardinals, by comparison, have been playing like garbage since September, losing their last five games. Remember when they beat the Patriots in Week 2? Hahaha. Anyway, you could argue that the Falcons haven't played the toughest Ds in the world, and you'd be right, and you could argue that the Falcons have only rushed for more than 100 yards twice this season and you'd be right again, AND you could argue that the Cardinals still have the league's 2nd-best pass defense and- Hey, shut up for a second! Jesus. The Cardinals have scored a total of 53 points in their last five games and that ain't gonna cut the mustard against the Falcons' D.

Cleveland (2-7) at Dallas (4-5) - Last week I turned the Cowboys/Eagles game on just in time to see a punt returned all the way followed by a pick six breaking what was a tie game wide open. Dallas has looked butt-awful at times this year but the Browns have looked worse more often. This ought to be the Cowboys' first home win since Sept. 23.

Green Bay (6-3) at Detroit (4-5) - The last time these teams met (Jan. 1, 2012), it looked like the 1997 North Hollywood bank robbery as Matthew Stafford and Matt Flynn (haha remember him? What's he up to? Oh, right getting paid millions to watch football games in Seattle) combined for 1,000 passing yards and ELEVEN TOUCHDOWNS. The Packers won that one 45-41 and let's hope we're treated to another shootout.

Cincinnati (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8) - If there's a team in the league worse than the Browns, it'd be the Chiefs. At home this year they're scoring 16.5 points a game on average, and giving up 4.3 turnovers PER GAME. Yes, the Chiefs only threw one INT last week and yes they forced overtime against the Steelers but come on, man. The Benglas looked less Bungles last week as Andy Dalton and Jay Gruden's offense scored four touchdowns to four different receivers in a 31-13 thrashing of the Giants.

NY Jets (3-6) at St. Louis (3-5-1) - Ugh. Ties. Both of these teams are a complete disaster lately. They're both on long not-winning (you can't say "losing" because of the goddamn tie) streaks and who knows they could play to a 0-0 tie and just fart all over each other for 75 minutes. Anyway, the Rams are 7-1 against the Jets since 1986, so there's a fact.

Philadelphia (3-6) at Washington (3-6) - The way things are going in the NFC East lately, the Giants could make the playoffs with a 6-10 record. Nick Foles had some flashes of brilliance in what I saw of his time on the field last week against Dallas, but mostly looked helpless (although that's also because he had like 8 minutes to climb out of a hole his team dug itself into). He'll do better this week, but not by much. The Redskins are coming off a bye which might give them the edge. By the way, after that 4th quarter pick six, the camera showed Andy Reid on the sideline and I could see him realize that was the interception that cost him his job.

The most Philly image ever

Tampa Bay (5-4) at Carolina (2-7) - Tampa Bay has won three straight games (and it would've been five if they hadn't been jobbed against New Orleans), has the fourth-most points in the league, and the third-best points per game average. I'm gonna dare to dream a bit here and say that with the offense (finally) firing they'll be able to overcome a bipolar defense (best against the run, worst against the pass) and replicate their Week 1 victory against the Panthers here. Plus the Kitties are 0-4 in their last four home games. So I'll make this my Stone Cold Tighten Up Lock it Down Lock it Up Can't Miss You Better Believe It LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Jacksonville (1-8) at Houston (8-1) - ahahahahahaha the last time these teams met, the Texans outgained the Jaguars 411-117. Houston's won their last three; Jacksonville's lost their last SIX.

New Orleans (4-5) at Oakland (3-6) - As you'd expect from a trip to a place known as Bodymore, Murderland the Raiders had grievous harm done to them last week in a 55-10 loss to the Ravens. How shitty are the Raiders? They actually gained 422 yards in that game. Think about how terrible you have to be to gain that many yards and then score so few points. Not that the Saints have been doing much better either at 4-5. All in all, expect the Saints to just throw forever and see what happens.

Indianapolis (6-3) at New England (6-3) - These teams have met 12 times in the past nine seasons, partly because it makes sense the AFC's road to the Super Bowl would go through Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and partly because if I were in charge of NFL scheduling I'd be a big dumb baby not to make them dance around like dolls before doing weird things with them. Anywho, Peyton Manning's not on the Colts anymore (you may have heard something about that during the offseason) and Andrew Luck (the next franchise QB in Indy) has 2 TDs and 7 INTs in road games this year.

San Diego (4-5) at Denver (6-3) - Speaking of Peyton Manning (look how old that phone is!)... The other horse team is on a four-game winning streak which began against... the Chargers. Ruh-roh! In their past six games against the Broncos in Denver, San Diego are 5-1. It's worth mentioning that Peyton Manning was the Denver QB in 0 of those six games.

(SNF) Baltimore (7-2) at Pittsburgh (6-3) - Oh, dear. I'm sure this game looked much better before Ben "Maybe Rapist" Roethlisberger was benched for Byron Leftwich. Anywho, the Ravens are red-hot and the Steelers struggled against the Chiefs and it's nap time so Flacco, et al. get the nod.

Monday
Chicago (7-2) at San Francisco (6-2-1) - Jay Cutler and Alex Smith suffered concussions last Sunday so in order to keep their brains from leaking out of their ears, the Bears and 49ers could start Jason Campbell and Colin Kaepernick, respectively. Which makes this game perfect for Monday Night. Anyway, Alex Smith might be closer to coming back but either way the Niners get the nod.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Forward, Comrades! Venceremos!

An election happened. America died. I'm a liberal who lives in a swing state. Rather than vote for my preferred candidate I chose Obama. I'm not proud of it, per se, but I'm happy Mitt Romney didn't win. So pour yourself a drink and let's do some football picks.

Last week: 11-3
Season: 84-48

Thursday
Indianapolis (5-3) at Jacksonville (1-7) - Jacksonville is 3-0 against Peyton-Manning-less Indy. These teams met earlier in the year and the Jaguars won on a literal last-minute touchdown. The Colts are clicking now, though. In the last three games they've allowed a total of 46 points, and Andrew Luck set a rookie passing record last week. As such, I'm making this my Stone Cold Tighten Up Lock it Down Lock it Up Can't Miss You Better Believe It LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Sunday
NY Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati (3-5) - The G-Men were on a four-game winning streak prior to last week's loss to the Steelers. The Bungles are on a four-game losing streak, including three straight at home. Look for that streak to continue while the Giants start a new win streak.

Tennessee (3-6) at Miami (4-4) - Reginald Bush has to be excited to face a weak Titans run defense, while Davone Bess and Brian Hartline are no doubt excited to face a weak Titans pass D. Whoever gets legitimately raped by the Dolphins, be it the secondary or the the front seven, the Titans don't have a way of shutting the whole thing down.

Detroit (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4) - Two NFC North teams meeting in the middle as one heads down and t'other heads up. The Lions were 1-3 to start the year while the Vikings were 3-1, but they've gone 3-1 and 1-3 respectively in their last four games. Christian Ponder has been erratic and without Percival J. Harvin, III he'll be more so.

Buffalo (3-5) at New England (5-3) - Fun fact: in the past 18 games these teams have played, the Patriots are 17-1. Tom Brady threw three TDs and rushed for another when these teams met in Week 4.

Atlanta (8-0) at New Orleans (3-5) - This is going to be a great game. Both teams will air it out all afternoon but I think the Falcons get the edge.

San Diego (4-4) at Tampa Bay (4-4) - Fun fact: if it weren't for the Chiefs, the Chargers would be 0-6 in their last six games. Tampa's rookie Doug Martin has rushed for 465 yards in his past two games alone. While he won't be able to put up 200+ yards for a third week in a row, the combination of Martin and a decent passing game ought to be enough to give the Bucs the edge in this one.

Denver (5-3) at Carolina (2-6) - Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning, basically. In his past three games the Broncos have scored 100+ points. In his past five games, he's thrown three TD passes with a 76% completion percentage and a 316 yards/game average.

Oakland (3-5) at Baltimore (6-2) - Doug Martin has been compared to Ray Rice. Doug Martin went apeshit on the Raiders last week. Ray Rice is Ray Rice. Ray Rice will go apeshit on the Raiders this week.

NY Jets (3-5) at Seattle (5-4) - The Seahawks are perfect* at home this season. The Jets are 1-4 in their last five games. If the Seahawks' defense can give Aaron Rodgers trouble, they won't have much trouble putting Mark Sanchez on his back.

Dallas (3-5) at Philadelphia (3-5) - Boy, who's the less-shitty mess in this matchup? Home team gets the nod here.

St. Louis (3-5) at San Francisco (6-2) - The Rams have only scored 41 points in their last three games. That ain't good when they're going against a team that has allowed 0, 3, 6, and 3 points in their last four wins.

(SNF) Houston (7-1) at Chicago (7-1) - Now this is a fine way to cap a Sunday full of football. Houston is scoring a second-best 29.6 points per game. Chicago, no doubt helped by last week's 51-point stomping of the Titans, is third-best with 29.5 points per game. Defensively, both teams are in the top five in any number of metrics (points per game, yards per game, total yards, etc.) This one will be decided by a turnover (or two), and while the Texans are doing fine with 14 takeaways (and a +8 differential), the Bears have twice as many; 28 takeaways for a +16 differential. This is going to be a flipping amazing game.

Monday
Kansas City (1-7) at Pittsburgh (5-3) - And here you have a greasy turd of a game. The dumpster fire that is the Chiefs' offense heads to Pittsburgh to get murdered by the league's best defense. You want turnover differential? Kansas City's is NEGATIVE TWENTY. That's really, really bad.

Bye weeks: Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Washington